Pirates Blogger Round Table

As spring training comes to a close, I brought together a few Pirates bloggers to discuss some questions leading into the season. I would like to thank Tim from BuccoFans.com, Brian from Raise the Jolly Roger, and Jon from The "Mc" Effect. I also answered the same questions posed to these three.

Here are the questions that were asked and each blogger's answer:

One of the biggest battles this spring is the one for the fifth spot in the rotation. Who would you prefer, and why?

Tim - I'd go with Kevin Hart. His 2009 season was a tale of two pitchers. He had a 2.60 ERA with the Cubs, but that was a result of an incredibly lucky .235 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and a 90.2% strand ratio. He improved his strikeout and walk ratios after the trade, but had an unlucky .372 BABIP and a 60.6% strand ratio, both well below league average. McCutchen was helped by a lucky .277 BABIP and a 79.3% strand ratio in his brief time in the majors. I think Hart has more upside than McCutchen, and I think he can realize that upside by working with Kerrigan. His main problem in the majors is control, and we saw what Kerrigan did to improve Ohlendorf's walk ratio last year. I think the same could happen with Hart this year.

Brian - McCutchen, just because he was better in the small sample size we saw at the end of last season. It was truly painful to watch Hart pitch, but I think DCutch improved and did a nice job. It makes me wonder why management seems reluctant to give him more of a shot. Also, DCutch has great nickname potential.

Jon - I prefer Daniel McCutchen. There isn't a team in the league who is looking for domination out of their 5th starter, and that is especially true for the Pirates. What we need in the 5 spot is someone who can go out and keep us in ballgames. The pitcher who I saw do the best job of that last year was McCutchen. He didn't have a very big sample size, but I just see him as a guy who isn't going to get lit up very often. Kevin Hart may have better stuff and have a higher ceiling, but that's not really what we're looking for right now. Let Hart work on his stuff in AAA and bring McCutchen's reliability to the majors.

Me - I've said it a couple times, but I prefer Dan McCutchen. There are a couple ways to look at this, however. Kevin Hart's stuff give him more upside than McCutchen. However, I feel that McCutchen is probably the best bet on being an average fourth or fifth starter. Based on what I saw from Hart last season, I feel his stuff would fit nicely in the bullpen, but I would not be totally opposed to seeing him get at least another shot at starting.

There are a lot of breakout candidates this season. If you had to pick one player to breakout and exceed expectations, who would it be and why?

Tim - It's hard to classify a breakout player when talking about expectations. My pick would be Charlie Morton, but I think a lot of people are expecting him to breakout, so I'm not sure if that counts. I think Bobby Crosby could be a good candidate. He has good historical numbers against NL teams, and he has strong defense at short. If he can maintain that hitting in his move to the National League, he could put up an overall performance that would exceed anything we saw from Jack Wilson the past few years.

Brian - Charlie Morton. The Bucs' rotation is actually shaping up OK this year, and Charlie is a great guy to have in the #4 spot. With a year of Joe Kerrigan under his belt, hopefully he'll be able to control his absolutely nasty movement a bit better, and he was still relatively effective when he was a bit wild.

Jon - I'm sure a lot of people are saying Andy LaRoche here, who is a definite possibility, but I'm gonna go ahead and say Jeff Clement. All of the negativity about Clement seems to come from his defensive game. I think people are weighing that too much and not realizing the potential he has with the bat. The guy has serious power possibilities and I think he can slide under the radar and have a pretty nice year at the plate for the Bucs.

Me - If I had to pick one guy who will breakout and exceed expectations this season, I would have to say Jeff Clement. If Clement can stay healthy and actually get a full season on ML experience this season, I could see a 25 HR performance out of the guy. Plus, I don't think Pirates fans, especially the casual ones, have very high expectations of Clement and could see him surprising a lot of people this year.

Alright, complete opposite now...If you had to choose one player who will not live up to expectations this season, who would it be and why?

Tim - I'd go with Zach Duke. I don't think he'll put up back to back seasons around the 4.00 ERA level. He's always been inconsistent in his career, struggling to put up several strong performances in a row. He avoided that in the first half of the 2009 season, but really fell apart in the last two months. If he didn't have this problem throughout his career, I'd chalk those months up to the trades that sent three quarters of his infield defense away. I hope Duke does well, because I think he could fetch a good return when Brad Lincoln is ready to arrive, assuming he repeats his 2009 first half success.

Brian - The obvious answer is Garrett Jones, but I'm going to say Pedro Alvarez. Everyone's hyping him up as if he'll be able to walk across the three rivers and mash homers to the Convention Center. Remember how he struggled early on in A-ball before putting things together? He'll be fine in the long run, but I'm not expecting heroic results in a short June-to-September window.

Jon - While there aren't too many players that have high expectations for the Pirates, I think my answer here is going to be Garrett Jones. I was never too excited with Garrett's power. I was surprised that he kept pretty good numbers after his extreme power surge stopped last year, but I would honestly be pretty surprised to see him put up similar numbers like that again in 2010. You just don't seem to strike gold in that way many times in the major leagues, especially if your talking about the Pirates.

Me - I hate to say this, but I'm going to go with Andy LaRoche. I really hope I am wrong, but LaRoche is running out of time. He plays third base and has the organization's golden boy (Pedro Alvarez) nipping at his heals. Alvarez WILL be called up this season and LaRoche has to know that. Hopefully Andy doesn't put too much pressure on himself to perform to begin the season, because this is do or die time for him.

Moving to the minors...Which prospect(s) who is/are now under the radar will we all know about by the end of the season? Basically, who will be this year's Rudy Owens?

Tim - I'm expecting a big turnaround from Bryan Morris, although I don't know if he's really under the radar. I think he'll at least bounce back to top prospect status. Nelson Pereira is a guy I expect big things from this year, although he's hardly a Rudy Owens type, since his career numbers at the lower level have been strong. Jason Erickson is a guy who was a low key draft pick, but had strong numbers last year, and isn't mentioned amongst the top pitching prospects. From the international scene, I like Roberto Espinoza, assuming he makes the jump to the US.

On the hitting side, Matt Hague has some power, but that hasn't translated as anything more than gap power. He already makes good contact, and I think he could start hitting more homers this year. Rogelios Noris had some good numbers in the low levels last year, and is a guy to watch, especially if he moves up to full season play in West Virginia this year. On the international front, Eric Avila is a guy to watch if he makes the jump to the US. Not only did he have strong numbers in the DSL, but he showed good plate patience with only 20 strikeouts in 267 at-bats.

Brian - I'm going with Hunter Strickland, acquired in the LaRoche deal. When the Bucs traded LaRoche we knew they weren't going to get much back, but Hunter pitched pretty well after arriving and could turn some heads this season.

Jon - Bryan Morris. That's a pretty well-known name for Pirate fans, but I really like the guy. He has overcome a lot already and I think he has nowhere to go but up. His stuff is so good that I don't think he can do anything but impress us. I think by the end of the year we will be looking at him as a huge part of the future.

Me - I'm going with my same pick from last year, Nelson Pereira. Pereira did have a solid season last year, but it was nothing to make people really notice. The short lefty went 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA in 49.2 innings last season. However, his strikeout numbers were his best ever at 10.1 / 9 IP. He will start off the year at West Virginia as a 21-year old. If he can keep up that strikeout rate as he progresses, he will start to turn some heads.

And finally, what will the Pirates' record be in 2010?

Tim - I think we could see a lot of improvement from the Pirates this year, especially once Alvarez and company arrive in June. I think 75-87 is a safe bet.

Brian - 76 - 86

Jon - 75-87

Me - The Bucs will be better than last year, however, the consecutive losing seasons streak will reach 18 as the club will finish 76-86. It will be good enough to beat the Astros for 5th place in the division.

Once again, I'd like to thank Tim, Brian, and Jon for their time to answer these questions. Feel free to leave your answers in the comments below to the same questions.