When the Pirates drafted Tony Sanchez with the #4 overall pick in this year's draft, there were a lot of people who denounced the pick. After all, Sanchez was expected to be a late first round pick at best. He was the #1 ranked catcher in the draft, but the #32 overall player in it. The Pirates chose Sanchez because it allowed them to go after some guys they took later in the draft who will require large bonuses due to solid college commitments. Sanchez signed for right about "slot" money at $2.5 million.
Sanchez just finished up his junior season at Boston College where he put up a solid line of .346/.443/.614. He hit 14 HR and played in arguably the best conference in college baseball. He's considered to be a very good defensive catcher and is said to already be major league ready in that aspect of his game.
Unlike the Pirates' situation last season with their 1st round pick, Sanchez signed quickly. This allowed him to get about a half season of pro ball under him, before heading into this offseason. So far, Sanchez is putting up college-like numbers with the wooden bat.
He was originally assigned to Low-A State College, where he played 4 games and went 4 for 13 (.308) with a double and a walk. He was then sent to A-West Virginia, where he has been hitting the cover off the ball. In 10 games so far with the Power, Sanchez' line looks like this: .405/.522/.622. He reached base safely in his first 9 games with the club and hit his first professional homer. He has also driven in 12 runs and has hit 5 doubles.
A lot of people compared Sanchez to Yadier Molina during the draft. If all things go well and Tony Sanchez develops into Yadier Molina, then by all means this was an excellent pick. Either way, it is basically a guarentee Sanchez will not be a total flop due to his defense. He will be a major leaguer, and he will get there rather quickly. If he can hit .270 or so and add 10-15 HR, he could become one of the premier catchers in the majors.
Expected time to be in the 'Burgh: 2011
Current Top 10:
1) July 18th
2) July 17th
3) July 16th
4) Tony Sanchez
7) Bryan Morris
8) Jeff Locke
10) Daniel McCutchen
4 comments:
Just filling in the blanks, you'll have Alvarez, Lincoln, Tabata in some order for the Top 3. That means Uviedo won't be in the Top 10. That's one of many candidates who could replace Daniel McCutchen at number 10.
I just don't think Daniel has a place in the system anymore as anything other than a spot starter. Plus he will be 27 for the 2010 season, at the max to be considered a prospect.
Uviedo is not in the Top 10, nor do I think he should be. Basically, my #10 came down to Rudy Owens, McCutchen, and Quinton Miller.
Due to the fact Owens is doing what he's doing this season, he makes a really strong case. However, he has never done anything like what he's doing in the past, so I was hesitant on putting him in there.
Miller has a lot of hype around him and was given a nice bonus. But he hasn't pitched all too much yet and has yet to do anything spectacular.
I didn't put Uviedo because this is the first season he has even started a minor league game. Relief pitchers simply aren't good prospects. He's putting up some decent numbers with Lynchburg, but once again, this is his first year starting. He could very well be on this list in a year if he continues what he's doing, though. I just think #10 is a little too high.
As far as McCutchen, I agree he most likely will not make a big impact in the majors. But at the current moment he has the best track record of anyone in our system as far as pitching goes. He's also the most ML ready pitching prospect we have and until he's given a chance to pitch in the majors (and he will) we really won't know exactly what we have with him.
The way I evaluate prospects is:
1. Production v. Projection - A player can be young for his level but if his K/BB rate is terrible (hitter) or his K rate/WHIP is terrible (pitcher), then he can't be elevated just because of "youth".
2. What is the ceiling and how likely is he to reach it? - A 2-way catcher is more important than a power hitting 1B, because of positional scarcity and defensive value. If a player has had surgeries or seems to miss time with nagging injuries, they may never reach their ceiling.
3. Age for their level - A 23 year putting up great numbers in the SAL is way overage and so on and so forth for the levels, so that's a consideration.
All of this gets around to Uviedo and D-McCutchen....Uviedo is having a great season at age 22 in A+. You should really take another look...7.6K/9IP and 1.7BB/9 IP. Daniel is having a fair season at AAA, but he is 26 soon to be 27. Plus, there are many options ahead of him in the pecking order.
Uviedo is a better "prospect" at this point because of his age and his stuff.
Your list is a little contrarian...Morris and Locke are placed in the Top 10 because of potential and no performance, but Uviedo and Owens are penalized for performance and slightly less potential.
I think everything you say is correct and we agree on basically everything you just said.
I can see how you or anyone can think Uviedo is a better "prospect" than McCutchen. Uviedo's potential is probably better than McCutchen's, however I think McCutchen has a better chance to impact the ML club, based on where he is in the system.
I like Uviedo, I do. However, I think guys like Owens and even Miller should be ahead of him. But I would put Uviedo right behind them in the 12-14 range.
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